The bullish expectation for Q4 2025 has turned out to be a bloodbath, and memecoins are among the biggest casualties.
In particular, tokens like Official Trump [TRUMP] and Melania [MELANIA] have extended their 2025 losses.
In the past 30 days, MELANIA was down 39% while TRUMP declined by 32%. On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, they had dropped by 96% (to $0.11) and 78% (to $5.70), respectively.
And they could drop lower if the market weakens into early 2026.
Source: TRUMP vs. MELANIA performance (TradingView)
Memecoin lull impact on MELANIA, TRUMP
Following the Q4 market contraction and a subsequent Bitcoin pullback of over 30%, the memecoin frenzy fizzled out.
In fact, on a YTD basis across all segments, memecoins have been one of the major underperformers this year.
Market attention shifted to privacy coins, triggering an explosive rally across Zcash [ZEC] and other related assets.
In fact, the privacy sector is the only segment to have made a profit (192%) this year, leaving memecoins mania dry.
Source: Artemis
Overall, the memecoin sector experienced an average 58% loss in 2025. This meant that MELANIA and TRUMP losses were above average, underscoring that the holders were severely burnt in the market rout.
Interest in TRUMP drops by 78%
The lost momentum in TRUMP and MELANIA was further supported by speculative interest across the Futures market.
According to Velo data, the total Open Interest (OI) shrank from over $550 million in early 2025 to $120 million in December.
That was a 78% drop in market interest, suggesting that attention had shifted elsewhere or traders had exited the market.
Source: Velo
For MELANIA, the speculative interest collapsed by 90%. If the broader market contracts further from its current levels, memecoins could bleed out more, and TRUMP and MELANIA could go lower.
Surprisingly, TRUMP still had a strong holder count that suggested long-term conviction. According to Solscan, despite the headwinds over the past three months, the TRUMP token had over 600K holders.
Source: Solscan
Overall, the memecoin lull in 2025 dented TRUMP and MELANIA, with the latter likely to dump harder if the market rout extends.
Despite a drop in speculative interest, TRUMP still had over half a million holders, suggesting an expectation of potential recovery.
Final Thoughts
Speculative interest in MELANIA and TRUMP collapsed by 90% and 78%, respectively.
But there was a surprising hold behaviour for the TRUMP token despite excessive losses.
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