Key takeaways:

The Spot Ether ETF outflows overwhelmed BitMine’s ETH accumulation, raising the chance of a drop below the $1,500 support.Falling DApps revenue and weak staking yields highlight limited ecosystem incentives despite tokenization potential.

Ether (ETH) has failed to sustain prices above $1,600 since Thursday, following the broader cryptocurrency market’s downtrend. Lower oil prices created a positive tone that fueled investors’ hopes for more expansionist monetary policy. That setup favors stocks and pushes bond yields higher.

Traders now fear that ETH will not hold the $1,500 support level for long. Spot Ether ETF outflows void the impact of accumulation from Ether treasury companies.

ETH/USD (orange) vs. Total crypto market cap (blue). Source: TradingView

Ether price has declined 31% since May and underperformed the total cryptocurrency market capitalization by 8% over that period. US-listed Ether ETFs saw $345 million in net outflows since June 17, which more than offset the $182 million in ETH accumulation from BitMine Immersion (BMNR US) and Sharplink (SBET US) during the same period.

Regulatory setbacks, AI competition and weak Ethereum onchain metrics

Several factors appear to have held back investor appetite, including regulatory uncertainty in the United States. Meanwhile, the stock market continues to draw attention thanks to strong earnings and lower inflation expectations.

The Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act has awaited a Senate vote since May 15. The bill ends regulation-by-enforcement and clarifies which tokens count as securities. Yet it has faced pushback from lawmakers over provisions regarding stablecoin yields and anti-money-laundering standards.

Democratic lawmakers voiced ethical concerns about the Trump family’s ties to crypto and its role in the World Liberty Financial platform. Most view the CLARITY Act as a positive catalyst for the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector. So ongoing uncertainty around approval hurts institutional demand for ETH.

The artificial intelligence sector now competes with blockchain for data processing as cloud providers deliver services through agentic architectures. Enterprise software leader SAP (SAP DE) has integrated autonomous, modular AI agents natively across multi-vendor clouds, enabling peer-to-peer collaboration.

Ether investors also feel disappointment from stagnant Ethereum network fees and decentralized applications (DApps) revenues. As a result, ETH supply becomes inflationary, staking yields remain limited, and fewer incentives exist for ecosystem growth, since part of DApps’ revenue flows back to users.

Ethereum monthly network chain fees vs. DApps revenue, USD. Source: DefiLlama

Ethereum network fees reached only $10.7 million in June, down from $24.4 million in April. DApps revenue hit $51.7 million in June, down from $64.8 million two months earlier. Top contributors included Sky (formerly Maker) at $12.7 million, Titan Builder at $7.2 million, and Chainlink at $4.6 million.

Ethereum supporters argue that tokenization remains in its early innings. The long-term growth potential should create enough blockchain demand to support a much higher ETH valuation.

Related: Ether treasury Sharplink bought $62.4M ETH last week

Ethereum real world assets (RWA) active market capitalization, USD. Source: DefiLlama

While real world assets (RWA) show real promise, the $14.5 billion in tokenized market cap on Ethereum has yet to spark meaningful DeFi activity. With a 2.7% staking yield and weak onchain metrics, the odds of ETH breaking below $1,500 remain in play.

The July 4 deadline for the CLARITY Act’s passage looks set to lapse without approval. Nearly a year has already passed since the U.S. House of Representatives approved the bill in July 2025. 

Since then, it has encountered numerous obstacles in Congress. This includes opposition from the stablecoin industry regarding rewards and ethical concerns from lawmakers. Interestingly, the current delay is because the bill is now being used as leverage in larger negotiations by U.S. President Donald Trump.

Trump’s move sent shockwaves

According to the latest update, President Trump called off the signing ceremony for the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act.

The bill featured a ban on a central bank digital currency (CBDC) and was supported by both parties in both chambers of Congress. In March, Trump had declared that he would “not sign other bills” until Republicans in Congress passed the SAVE America Act.

This has created a Senate scheduling crunch, directly squeezing the CLARITY Act’s chances of passage before the August recess. 

Senators are hopeful of the CLARITY Act

Even though Trump has retreated, Senator Tim Scott has stated his support for advancing the bill as soon as possible. 

The push also comes from the fact that Republicans on the Senate Banking Committee have already put forward a bipartisan proposal. 

Taken together, the urgency stems from worries that extended regulatory ambiguity may push crypto’s ecosystem to nations with more defined legal systems. Because of this, Scott contends that the Senate should move quickly to pass the legislation.

Is the 4th July deadline realistic?

That said, the bill might also lose steam if Republicans are unable to obtain the required sixty votes before the Senate’s August recess. It’s possible that congressional priorities will shift as a result of many lawmakers refocusing on reelection campaigns. This, in turn, would delay the CLARITY Act’s consideration until the following session of Congress in 2027.

Galaxy Research has lowered its outlook for the CLARITY Act from 60% to 50%. This marks a sharp contrast to early June, when optimism was high, even within the White House,  that the crypto market structure bill would be passed by its original July 4 deadline. 

Final Summary

Donald Trump called off the signing ceremony for the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act. 
With this blocker, the 4th of July deadline looks dicey for the approval of the CLARITY Act. 

TLDR:

Ethereum is trading near $1,600, approximately 21% below its 30-day peak amid sustained market weakness.
Two whale wallets withdrew $58.83M in ETH from Kraken and Bitgo, matching prior Bitmine purchase patterns.
Binance stablecoin reserves and netflows have shifted to neutral, signaling a pause in aggressive capital flight.
The bullish regime shift probability has climbed to 45%, but confirmation signals are still needed before acting.

Ethereum is trading around $1,600, roughly 21% below its 30-day peak, as on-chain data and whale activity draw renewed attention.

A quantitative regime model currently enforces a highly defensive stance, limiting market exposure to just 15%. Yet underlying metrics are shifting, with the probability of a bullish regime transition climbing to 45%.

Analysts and market observers are watching closely for confirmation signals before adjusting their positioning.

Defensive Model Meets Stabilizing Liquidity

Ethereum’s current price decline reflects a broader period of caution across crypto markets. The systematic regime model relies on multiple data layers, not price action alone.

It factors in Bitcoin’s structural cycles, derivative flows, and stablecoin dynamics on major exchanges like Binance.

Trend filters remain weak, with a moving average death cross showing a spread of -18.8%. That reading keeps the model in a highly defensive mode, reducing exposure significantly. However, momentum indicators tell a different story at the margin.

MACD histograms are contracting positively, suggesting that selling pressure may be running out of steam. This divergence between long-term trend weakness and short-term momentum stabilization is a key feature of the current setup.

Crucially, stablecoin data on Binance adds another layer of nuance. Stablecoin reserves registered a z-score of -0.32σ, while netflows came in at +0.20σ, both now in neutral territory.

This suggests the aggressive capital flight seen during deep corrections has paused, and exchange liquidity is no longer actively draining.

Whale Withdrawals Add a Bullish Variable

On-chain intelligence firm Arkham flagged notable activity from two fresh whale addresses this week. The wallets withdrew a combined $58.83 million worth of Ethereum from Kraken and Bitgo within hours.

Arkham noted that the purchase patterns matched prior observed activity linked to Bitmine, raising speculation about institutional accumulation.

Arkham posted on X: “Is Tom Lee stacking ETH this week?” referencing Bitmine chairman Tom Lee, known for public bullish stances on digital assets. The withdrawal pattern drew attention because it occurred against a backdrop of broader price weakness.

Ethereum recorded a 2.94% decline over the past 24 hours and a 7.43% drop over the past seven days, with 24-hour trading volume reaching $13.08 billion. Despite that, large-wallet behavior suggests some participants are positioning ahead of a potential reversal.

A decisive shift in Binance stablecoin netflows toward positive territory could serve as an early signal of returning risk appetite.

Until that confirmation arrives, the data supports patience rather than conviction in either direction. Ethereum’s next move may depend on whether these liquidity and behavioral signals continue to align.

India’s USDT premium is in the news after it climbed above 8.5% due to a contraction in the availability of stablecoins domestically. As it stands, capital flows into the country are being discouraged by regulators through both enforcement actions and greater oversight.

That imbalance pushed Tether’s value [USDT] to ₹102.88 against an official USD/INR rate of ₹94.65. This shift also led to a widening of the premium well beyond its typical 3–4% range. The growing spread may be a sign that arbitrage has become less effective as compliance risks discourage capital inflows.

Meanwhile, traders, cross-border users, and businesses continue to compete for limited stablecoin supplies. If regulatory uncertainty persists, elevated premiums could remain and encourage greater reliance on informal trading channels.

Otherwise, clearer regulations and improved liquidity may gradually narrow the pricing gap and restore more efficient market conditions.

Regulatory pressure reshapes stablecoin liquidity

That tightening premium is increasingly reflecting deeper changes in India’s stablecoin market structure rather than temporary pricing disruptions. In recent months, regulatory enforcement has slowed down fresh USDT inflows, reducing liquidity across P2P markets, OTC desks, and exchange order books.

Due to this fall in supply, both exchanges and on-chain flows demonstrated that there were minimal top-ups made to local inventory levels. Nonetheless, the total number of active wallet addresses, along with transaction volume, has remained relatively strong.

The resilience of these metrics may be evidence of the demand for using USDT. This includes sending cross-border payments, settling trade, and storing value backed by dollars, which has not abated together with the decrease in supply.

These divergences mean that regulations have constrained the supply of USDT in India greater than they have the end-use or need for it. Should the availability of compliant inflow channels be limited, then the liquidity shortage could continue.

However, regulatory clarity and better market access may gradually restore supply and narrow India’s elevated USDT premium.

Can India’s stablecoin market regain its efficiency?

Rather than just driving up the price, the increasing regulatory pressure is also affecting how the Indian stablecoin market operates. According to P2P transaction data, for instance, the INR/USDT rate was approximately at Rs 107.21 at press time.

The daily transaction count was over 140,000, but the amount of money changing hands was relatively low due to reduced liquidity. Meanwhile, buy volume reached only $1.2 million, compared with $17.8 million in sell volume, highlighting constrained market-making capacity.

This demonstrated an inability for market makers to operate in this environment. Furthermore, the enforcement actions and scrutiny surrounding ₹2500 crores in VDA transfers. This has additionally led to less new USDT inflow into the Indian market, thereby sustaining the ongoing supply shortages.

These imbalances might mean that regulatory uncertainty is currently diminishing market efficiency and increasing cost to acquire dollar liquidity. In the long run, if conditions remain as they are now, it will lead traders to seek alternative means or offshore dollar liquidity.

Clearer regulations would help restore arbitrage opportunities, increase available dollar liquidity, and eventually reduce India’s USDT premium.

Final Summary

Tether [USDT] demand remains resilient in India, but prolonged supply constraints could keep domestic premiums elevated.
USDT liquidity depends on regulatory clarity, with stronger compliance pathways needed to restore efficient pricing.

Crypto treasury company Sharplink, which resumed buying Ether last week after an eight-month pause, has bought a total of $62.4 million worth of Ether since Thursday. 

Onchain data from Arkham shows that after Sharplink bought 5,000 ETH on Thursday, it bought another 5,000 ETH (worth $7.9 million) on Friday, followed by 29,196 ETH (worth $46.7 million) across three over-the-counter transactions on Saturday. 

Source: Lookonchain

The three-day buying spree adds to evidence that Sharplink has revived its active Ether accumulation strategy. The crypto treasury company was once a close competitor to Bitmine as the world’s largest ETH treasury company. 

Sharplink declined to comment on the reason and timing of the Ether purchase when first contacted on Thursday. 

Sharplink backs Ethlabs

However, the purchases came the same week that both Bitmine and Sharplink backed a new research and development nonprofit that aims to make Ethereum ready for institutional use. 

Sharplink said on Monday that the organization, Ethlabs, was formed to “ready Ethereum for the next phase of institutional adoption,” with the company joining Bitmine, Ethereum co-founder and Sharplink chairman Joe Lubin and other Ethereum contributors in backing the initiative. 

Related: Sharplink, Forward Industries among crypto firms considered for Russell indexes

“As stablecoins, tokenized real-world assets, funds and autonomous AI commerce move on-chain, they are converging on Ethereum as the neutral, credibly permissionless settlement layer for the global economy,” Sharplink said. “Ethlabs exists to ensure the network is ready to absorb that demand at scale.”

Ether slump

The purchases also come as the cryptocurrency is down 22.8% month-on-month, and nearly 50% compared to the start of the year, allowing Tether stablecoin USDt (USDT) to briefly surpass Ether in market capitalization last week. 

Meanwhile, US spot Ether ETFs recorded their seventh week of outflows last week, recording $12.9 million in net outflows, driven mainly by withdrawals from BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA). 

Magazine: Bitcoin slides to $58K, XRP hits $1 but onchain data promising: Market Moves

TLDR

Four dormant Ethereum wallets were reactivated after nearly eight years of inactivity.
The wallets originally received 37,602 ETH in 2018 at about $830 per coin.
They sold 33,623 ETH within four hours at an average price of $1,560.
Total proceeds from the sales reached approximately $52.5 million.
The transactions resulted in an estimated realized profit of $27.4 million.

Four early Ethereum holders moved large balances after years of inactivity and sold into a weak market. Onchain data shows the wallets secured about $27.4 million in profit despite earlier higher valuations. The transactions occurred within hours and reduced long-held positions that once carried much larger unrealized gains.

Ethereum wallets unlock after long dormancy

Four Ethereum wallets were activated after nearly eight years of inactivity and began transferring funds to exchanges. The wallets originally received 37,602 ETH in 2018 at an average price near $830 per coin.

Onchain analysts from Lookonchain tracked the movement and confirmed that the wallets sold 33,623 ETH. The transactions occurred over about four hours at an average price of $1,560 per coin.

The total proceeds reached approximately $52.5 million based on Arkham data shared by analysts. After accounting for entry prices, the wallets secured about $27.4 million in realized profit.

The addresses involved include 0x71B…D412f, 0x92a…ae49D, 0x6C7…5C327, and 0xffd…5BeE5. Each wallet remained inactive since the initial accumulation period during the 2018 market cycle.

Analysts stated, “The wallets stayed dormant for years before executing large sales within a short timeframe.” The movement aligns with recent activity trends seen among long-term Ethereum holders.

Profit realized below historical peak levels

The sale occurred during a deep market drawdown, which reduced the final realized profit for these holders. Data shows the wallets held unrealized gains exceeding $150 million during previous bull cycles.

Ethereum reached an all-time high near $4,946 in August 2025, which marked the peak valuation for these holdings. At that level, the wallets carried profits more than five times higher than current realized amounts.

However, the market later declined and pushed Ethereum below $1,560 during the recent selling window. This price level influenced the timing and outcome of the transactions recorded on Friday.

The gap between peak value and realized profit reflects missed opportunities during earlier market highs. Analysts confirmed that the wallets did not distribute funds during the 2021 or 2025 bull runs.

The recent activity adds to a pattern of older Ethereum holders exiting positions after long holding periods. Earlier cases show similar behavior from wallets that remained inactive for nearly a decade.

In March, another early holder sold about $31 million worth of Ethereum through a centralized exchange. In April, an ICO participant transferred 10,000 ETH valued at roughly $23 million after years of inactivity.

Institutional demand for Bitcoin is showing fresh signs of weakening, removing one of the market’s strongest sources of structural spot buying.

The U.S. Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs are experiencing their seventh consecutive day of Net Outflows, with $445 million coming out of Bitcoin and $12.85 million coming out of Ethereum yesterday.

As redemptions persisted, monthly Bitcoin ETF flows turned negative by roughly $4.06 billion, reducing total ETF assets to $72.82 billion. This trend matters because sustained outflows reduce institutional buying that previously absorbed market supply during corrections.

Unless whales or long-term investors replace that demand, Bitcoin could struggle to build a sustained recovery. Otherwise, renewed institutional inflows may restore stronger price support.

Whale activity signals renewed conviction

Despite persistent ETF outflows, large Bitcoin holders responded differently as prices revisited key support levels. After Bitcoin dropped below $60,000 for a short time before returning to that area, whale trading volumes increased rapidly.

The network recorded 6,920 transactions above $100,000 and 1,438 exceeding $1 million, marking its second-largest spike in two months. This response suggests larger investors viewed the correction as an accumulation window rather than a signal to reduce exposure.

If whales continue absorbing supply while exchange balances remain constrained, downside pressure could gradually ease. Still, broader spot participation must strengthen before Bitcoin can convert accumulation into a sustained recovery.

Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holders enter capitulation

Whale accumulation reflects growing confidence among larger investors. However, Long-Term Holders (LTH) are not responding uniformly to the recent market weakness.

The Long-Term Holder SOPR has moved deeper into negative territory, indicating some seasoned investors are now realizing losses after Bitcoin repeatedly traded below $60,000. The monthly average has fallen from 1.03 to 0.8.

That would indicate about 13% loss for LTH on their investment over the last month.

Meanwhile, the yearly average declined from 2.06 to 1.46, confirming that realized profits continue shrinking. At this point, it appears the conviction of older holders is eroding.

However, as profitable supply becomes exhausted, selling pressure often diminishes, laying the groundwork for a gradual recovery rather than an immediate reversal.

Final Summary

Bitcoin [BTC] ETF outflows continue weakening institutional demand, while whale accumulation helps cushion near-term selling pressure.
Bitcoin long-term holder capitulation may reduce future selling, but broader spot demand remains key to recovery.

Eight-year-old Ether (ETH) wallets have started moving coins for the first time since 2017, adding fresh supply to the market as Ether trades just above $1,500. Onchain data shows 37,806 ETH from long-dormant addresses became active, while separate whale transactions point to continued accumulation by other large investors. 

The mixed positioning comes as total long-term ETH whale profitability has fallen below zero for the first time since 2019, leaving every major whale cohort sitting on unrealized losses. 

ETH whale traders are split between accumulation and distribution

According to Lookonchain, four Ethereum wallets that received 37,602 ETH nearly eight years ago at an average price of around $830 became active after years of dormancy. The wallets held through the 2021 and 2025 bull markets, when their unrealized gains exceeded $150 million, sold 33,623 ETH for about $52.5 million at around $1,560 on Thursday. The realized profit now stands near $27.4 million.

OG ETH wallets holding period. Source: Lookonchain/X

Fresh ETH selling has appeared alongside continued buying from other large holders. Blockchain tracker Lookonchain reported that one whale swapped 464 BTC worth $27.6 million for 17,750 ETH, signaling capital rotation into Ether. 

Meanwhile, investor Chun Wang also acquired another 9,937 ETH and 147 wrapped Bitcoin. Over the past month, Wang has withdrawn almost 87,000 ETH from Binance at an average purchase price of $1,749.

Institutional ETH trading also remained active. BlackRock transferred 41,996 ETH and 4,577 BTC to Coinbase Prime, a move commonly associated with custody or operational management rather than a confirmed market sale.

Crypto analyst Darkfost noted that Ether whales holding between 1,000 ETH and more than 100,000 ETH are all sitting on negative unrealized profit ratios. This marks the first time since 2019 that every major whale cohort has been underwater. 

ETH whales’ unrealized profit ratio. Source: X

The analyst said that periods when whale conviction was tested by ETH prices, it often aligned with long-term bottom zones. The current scenario indicates that large holders are facing greater overall pressure in 2026, even as selective ETH accumulation persists.

Related: Tether stablecoin flips Ether by market cap as ETH routs to $1.5K

$1,500 level for ETH draws trader focus

Ether dropped to $1,510 during Thursday’s sell-off, though it avoided setting a new yearly low even as Bitcoin fell to fresh 2026 lows. 

Crypto trader Ardi described $1,500 as Ether’s key long-term support, arguing that daily closes below that level challenge the bullish assumptions built up since the 2022 bear market. 

Ether/USD, one-week chart. Source: Ardi/X

Crypto investor Jelle shared a similar view, saying a sustained break would send Ether back into a trading range last seen in early 2023. Weekly price action shows ETH has defended the $1,500 region during several major corrections since mid-2022, making it one of the altcoin’s longest-standing support zones. 

However, not all market participants expect a near-term recovery. Popular trader Cyclops identified the $1,070–$1,370 range as a potential accumulation zone, citing it as a key demand area established in early 2023. A move into that range would also see ETH break below its multi-year ascending trendline, a technical development that could further delay a sustained recovery and reinforce the broader bearish market structure. 

ETH/USD, one-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Related: XRP risks drop below $1, but onchain data highlights silver lining

Martinez warned that bulls need to hold the $0.073 level, or the setup becomes invalid.

The OG meme coin has been in sharp decline over the past several months, recently plummeting to a three-year low.

According to one popular analyst, it might experience a short-term revival, whereas others think the cycle bottom has yet to arrive.

Dogecoin at a Crossroads

Earlier today (June 26), DOGE tumbled to around $0.072 before slightly rebounding to the current $0.074 (per CoinGecko). Despite the carnage, Ali Martinez said the asset’s TD Sequential indicator has flashed a buy signal and added that he will pay close attention to the $0.073 level.

“Hold it, and $0.081 is in play. Lose it, and the setup is no longer valid,” he estimated.

Last week, the analyst touched on DOGE again, revealing that 420 million coins have been distributed by whales over just seven days. As a result, the total holdings of these large investors have shrunk to nearly 35 billion tokens, or less than 23% of Dogecoin’s circulating supply.

Other market observers who have recently been vocal on the asset’s performance include Celal Kucuker and Part-Time Trader. The former envisioned a possible plunge to the $0.05-$0.06 zone, calling it an “attractive” buying range. In the meantime, the analyst remains highly bullish for the long term, arguing that DOGE has the potential to reach $1.

The latter issued a doomsday prediction, warning that the meme coin could be headed for a 95% collapse, bringing the price to approximately $0.004.

The Other Indicators

DOGE’s major pullback has led to a sharp decline in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Its ratio briefly collapsed to roughly 18.6, indicating the asset has entered extreme oversold territory. Historically, such a low level has been a precursor to a rebound, and we have yet to see whether this will be the case here.

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Dogecoin’s exchange netflow represents another ray of hope. Over the past several weeks, investors have continued to abandon centralized platforms in favor of self-custody solutions, reducing immediate selling pressure.

One powerful catalyst for a potential DOGE resurgence could be institutional interest in the meme coin, which, at the moment, seems absent. Spot Dogecoin ETFs remain unattractive to pension funds, hedge funds, and other conservative investors, with cumulative net inflows of just $12.6 million since their launch.

Market activity across the Jito network has accelerated significantly of late. 

The protocol has generated $1.75 billion in gross revenue, making it one of the strongest-performing projects in the Solana ecosystem. Most of that revenue—about 81%—came from MEV rewards, while staking rewards accounted for the remainder.

These metrics suggest Jito’s infrastructure is handling more economic activity as users continue to rely on the protocol for staking and MEV services. That’s not all though as that growth is also beginning to show up elsewhere.

Is the revenue growth translating into user activity?

In fact, network participation has strengthened over the past few days too.

The number of active addresses registered a major hike, pointing to significant engagement across the ecosystem. At the same time, trading volume expanded by nearly 90% to $102 million over the last 24 hours.

These metrics often move together.

More active addresses usually indicate broader user participation, while an uptick in trading volume often means capital may be flowing back into the market. Together, they seemed to paint a picture of increasing network activity rather than a short-lived spike in speculation.

That makes the recent revenue milestone more meaningful too. It is evidence that the protocol isn’t just attracting attention—it is also generating sustained economic activity.

Is the market beginning to recognize that growth?

Well, the improving fundamentals are now starting to appear on the chart too.

After spending months consolidating, JTO broke above a bullish flag pattern on the daily timeframe. Since then, the price has continued to respect an ascending trendline that has produced multiple rebounds since early May.

If the momentum holds, the trendline resistance could be the next target for the token’s buyers.

In fact, the technical structure appeared to be catching up with what on-chain data has been showing for weeks. Whether the breakout develops into a larger rally will ultimately depend on whether network activity continues to expand.

At the time of writing, the latest metrics hinted at a bullish run continuation. Revenue has been growing, users are becoming more active, and trading participation registered a hike too.

In other words, the recent price breakout may simply be the market beginning to reflect those improving fundamentals.

Final Summary

Jito generated $1.75 billion in protocol revenue, highlighting sustained network usage.
Hike in active addresses and a $50 million uptick in trading volume coincided with JTO’s breakout above a multi-month bullish flag.